Sunday, December 9, 2018

Looking at the 2020 Field


How I’m Choosing my 2020 Candidate

In 2007 I approached the Democratic primaries focused on two issues: ending the US occupation of Iraq, and supporting a transition to clean energy.  The main difference I saw among the candidates was that then-Senator Obama had opposed the Iraq War before Clinton or Edwards had done so. 
This proved to be a mistake, as the antiwar movement was marginalized from its mass constituency by Obama claiming the peace mantle even as he massively expanded bombings of civilians in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, while the public option, Civil Rights bills for Queer people, and cap and trade were all abandoned, the Endangered Species Act was frozen, and privatization advocates were installed in the Department of Education.  Much of this could have been done by executive order, and eventually was in last-minute, short-lived attempts to satisfy abandoned constituencies.  Whether by overt malice, or by deference to the process, the best opportunity for radical change in two generations (and counting) was lost.

Obviously, the most important reason for this was the resilience and skill of the Bourgeoisie in co-opting reformist movements, but I think it would be an error to write off all potential improvements under a bourgeois-democratic system because of the Obama betrayals.  Real changes are possible with the right candidates, not to the system itself, but to the lives and livelihoods of millions of workers, which will strengthen the movement towards an eventual revolution.  Less desperate workers are stronger workers.   

The question then becomes- how do we pick a presidential candidate we can work with, one who will respond to the people's movement?  How do we gauge a president’s interest in working with their constituency vs. defending the process?  Who do we think will be willing to match GOP hardball coup tactics?  

I think we’re looking for someone who has a record of opposing Democratic leadership from the left at a time when they faced consequences for doing so.  Bernie obviously qualifies for his opposition to the TPP before it became a cause célèbre, his following the lead of activists and coming around to the necessity of abolishing ICE, and more generally for his courage in running against Clinton when no one else would.  I have to temper this with an awareness of his recent apologia for racism, and his statements that issues related to racism and sexism are unimportant.  I still think Bernie is the candidate least likely to betray us, but I’m not sure he’ll be consistently thinking of the entire working class, especially given his condoning racists' refusal to support Black candidates and tolerance of antichoice positions.  Whether or not I can support him again will depend in large part on the people he surrounds himself with.

The only other major candidate I can think of who has defied Dem. Leadership to a comparable extent is Kirsten Gillibrand, who has been cut off from party funding after standing with the #MeToo movement to criticize Bill Clinton’s past sexual abuse and to call on Franken to resign.  Whether we agree with her actions or not, they clearly show that she was willing to stand with Democratic voters even at a cost of massive campaign funding and her relationship with the Clintons.  To me, this looks like a principled declaration of independence that helped Doug Jones win Alabama and distinguished her from the pack.

This is not a perfect metric.  It privileges politicians who have been well liked or rich enough to weather controversies, in short, looking for insurgent candidates with a record privileges those who can get away with such an insurgency.  It’s hard to imagine Kamala Harris doing things like this, but it is also hard to imagine such dissent being tolerated from a Black woman.  That said, I do not see anything resembling this hint of independence in her career.  I’ll be looking very closely at her record of arguing against commutations for exonerated prisoners and her sluggish response on ICE, and hopefully finding something that will enable me to endorse her. 

But for now, my choices remain Bernie and Kirsten

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