Ok, Hi. You all know how into election
design I am, and this last British election, while disastrous in its
own right, also provides an opportunity to discuss how fundamentally
antidemocratic the single member district, first past the post system
used by the US and UK is. There are many problems with it, and I will
try to explain them in an engaging manner. My primary contention is
as long as we're giving this whole democracy theory a shake, its goal
is to make as many votes as possible have an impact on the outcome.
The British/American election system, by which voters are divided
into constituencies/districts, each of which elects 1 representative
by simple plurality vote, is an obsolete menace to the fair representation
of the public's views.
First- location. People can vote all
they want in droves- if 10% of the electorate across the country
endorses a particular party's agenda, they still get no seats unless
they have a plurality in a given location. Meanwhile the largest
parties (the most likely to command pluralities) end up winning a far
bigger share of the seats than they earn of the popular vote. This
is not Democracy!
You can also have the opposite problem
cause the same result- a party can overwhelmingly win one district by
more than they need to carry it, but reap no additional benefits from
doing so. This is currently being displayed in North Carolina, where
the GOP legislature has packed over 90% of the state's
African-American residents (22% of the population) into just 3 of
the state's 13 congressional districts, so their voices don't affect
any other elections. That's pretty close to a representative share
of the electorate but there are huge advantages for the conservatives
in keeping the other districts from having any minority input, and
those 3 districts do not need to be as homogeneous as they are to
produce these results- the net result is massive under-representation
for the Democratic Party, as only these three majority minority
districts can elect democratic pluralities. The result? Republicans
won (on their best day ever in 2014) 55% of the vote but got 77% of
the seats, while the Dems got 45% of the vote but only 23% of the
seats. The ratios for each are 1.4 of representation for the
Republicans, and .51 for the Democrats. This is not Democracy!
These twin tendencies of First Past the
Post and Single Member districts produce a chilling effect on
political activity, because the tendency to vote strategically is so
strong, not only can minor to moderately sized parties win no
representation at all, but this is self-reinforcing, as people become
less and less willing to vote for parties that they believe in- 20%
of the American public favors Socialism. How many Socialists do we
have in Congress? (1- Bernie Sanders). Lemme see, 1:535 is... less
than 20%, yet no one will vote to represent their interests because
under a first past the post system, how many votes you get is only as
important as where those votes came from. This is not Democracy!
What it is instead, is a system in
which some people's votes matter and others' do not. If you live in
a safe seat, it doesn't matter to the dominant party if they win by
the slimmest of pluralities or 80 % of the vote- they're
overwhelmingly likely to win there, which means those people get less
attention from political figures except during primary season than
those living in swing districts. This can be fixed in a lot of ways-
multimember districts and list voting (perhaps at a larger level)
would both make those votes more valuable. Because there is only one
seat to be decided, the scale of victory doesn't matter except for
bragging rights- in a multimember district, a strong party would have
incentive to compete for all the seats, with a super-high margin of
victory divided among several candidates, while a minor party could
likely gain some representation by hitting a minority threshold, not
needing a plurality. All sides would have reason (at least
mathematically) to campaign everywhere and hold the approval of as
many constituencies as possible. I'll write more soon about an ideal
system, but here's my autopsy of Anglo-American-Canadian-French
Democracy. Every other semi-democracy and even the few true
democracies has fixed at least some of these problems in their
electoral system! We need to catch up quickly.
All British parties except the conservatives, including both the Heroic SNP and the Villainous UKIP are fully behind reform and transition to a list system which would eliminate the necessity for the last row! We see in this system that the SNP, the Tories, Labour, Plaid Cymru, and most Northern Irish parties get significant subsidies through geography, while the Greens, Libdems, and UKIP get shafted. That may be a worthwhile bargain from my usual Socialist standpoint, bu it does mean a huge number of wasted votes on all sides. I'd rather try to carry the day on skill and persuasion, not an obsolete election system- it's also worth noting that with a list system, Cameron would have needed to go into coalition with UKIP (which he couldn't do without being known as the menace he truly is) or the DUP (which would probably have precluded his current plan to scrap the Irish peace treaty, just sayin'). Either way, the UK would be slightly better off than they are now. It will take more than fixing a broken electoral system to fix the worrying fact that half of all Britons voted for the Tories or UKIP, though.
British election results- Parties-
results from wikipedia
Party Name and my opinion of them | Scottish National Party (Scotland only) Heroes |
Plaid Cymru, Party of Wales (Wales only)
Good |
Greens goodish |
Labour centrists |
Libdems centrists |
Tories evil |
UKIP Really, Really evil |
Ulster Union Party (N. Ireland only) evil | Democratic Union Party (N. Ireland only) evil | Sinn Fein (N. Ireland only) damned post modern hipsters | Social Democratic and Labour Party (N. Ireland only) good |
Votes | 1.4 million | 180000 | 1.1 million | 9.4 million | 2.4 million | 11.3 million | 4 million | 115000.00% | 185000 | 175000 | 100000 |
Votes (%) | 5.00% | 0.60% | 4.00% | 30.40% | 8.00% | 36.80% | 12.00% | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.30% |
Seats won /650 | 56 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 8 | 330 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
Seats won (%) | 8.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% | 35.00% | 1.20% | 51.00% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 1.20% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
Vote/seat ratio | 25,000 to 1 | 60,000 to 1 | 1,100,000 to 1 | 40,500 to 1 | 300,000 to1 | 34,000 to 1 | 4,000,000 to 1 | 57,500 to 1 | 23,000 to 1 | 44,000 to 1 | 33,000 to 1 |
representation %/votes | 1.72 | .83 | 0.05 | 1.15 | 0.15 | 1.38 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 2 | 1 | 1.6 |
Clarifications- representation%/Votes%-
this last row expresses how far each party deviated from the vote
percentage that they earned. Ideally (from a democratic perspective)
each number in this lowest row should be 1. Less than that means a party got fewer votes than it would have under a system which counted all votes equally, more than that means they got more. For example Labour got 115% of what they should have, Greens got 5%, and Sinn Fein actually got the "correct" amount.
What do you think- should I add in the numbers of seats that each side would get under a list system?
Yes
Under a pure list list system (with a bit of rounding), the SNP would receive 32, Plaid 4, the greens 26, Labour 198, Libdems 52, Tories 240, UKIP 78, UUs 3, the DUP 4, Sinn Fein 4, and the SDLP 2.
Solidarität, Genossinnen und Genossen
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